==========================================================================================
CITIZENS STANDARD COUNTERFACTUAL — FULL RESULTS
Reconstructed with authoritative data (FRED/BLS/Census/BEA latest vintages)
Run date: 2026-05-12 audit
==========================================================================================

==========================================================================================
SECTION 3.2  Illustrative years of K1 and K2 calibration
==========================================================================================
Year     M2 ($B)   GDP/cap nom    K1 nominal   K2 per cit nom   CPI ratio to 2025
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1960  $      312$       3,002$       75.04$          15.12            10.87x
1990  $    3,285$      23,891$      597.27$         120.49             2.46x
2025  $   22,366$      90,000$    2,250.01$         691.76             1.00x

==========================================================================================
SECTION 4.1 - TABLE 1   Central scenario  (4.5% real equity return post-2025)
==========================================================================================
Cohort Born  Retire       Stable Floor    Median actual    Mean actual   vs median   vs mean
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A      1960  2025    $        209,942$        260,000$      669,230       0.81x     0.31x
B      1970  2035    $        215,961$        260,000$      669,230       0.83x     0.32x
C      1980  2045    $        229,696$        260,000$      669,230       0.88x     0.34x
D      1990  2055    $        245,435$        260,000$      669,230       0.94x     0.37x

==========================================================================================
SECTION 4.4  Cohort D sensitivity to post-2025 real equity assumption
==========================================================================================
Scenario        Real return     Stable Floor   4% + SS income    vs med   vs mean
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pessimistic           3.0%  $        245,435$         29,280     0.94x     0.37x
Central               4.5%  $        245,435$         29,280     0.94x     0.37x
Historical            6.5%  $        245,435$         29,280     0.94x     0.37x

==========================================================================================
SECTION 4.5  Decomposition of Cohort A central scenario (real 2025$)
==========================================================================================
  K1 deposit at birth (1960, real 2025$):  $         816.05  (0.39%)
  K2 deposits cumulative (1960-2025):      $      39,910.60  (19.01%)
  Total principal (real 2025$):            $      40,726.65  (19.40%)
  Equity compounding gain:                 $     169,215.74  (80.60%)
  Final Stable Floor:                      $     209,942.40  (100.00%)

==========================================================================================
SECTION 4.6 - TABLE 2  Annual retirement income at age 65 (2025 real $)
==========================================================================================
Cohort Retire     SS benefit   Median income    Mean income    Mode B income
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A      2025    $     24,953$        35,353$       51,722$         33,351
B      2035    $     19,463$        29,863$       46,232$         28,101
C      2045    $     19,463$        29,863$       46,232$         28,651
D      2055    $     19,463$        29,863$       46,232$         29,280

==========================================================================================
SECTION 5.1 - TABLE 3  Stress tests (Depression and Stagflation ages 25-41)
==========================================================================================
Cohort        Central    Depression   Stagflation   D ratio   S ratio  D vs med  S vs med
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A      $     209,942$     182,255$     126,470     0.87x     0.60x     0.70x     0.49x
B      $     215,961$     185,966$     131,138     0.86x     0.61x     0.72x     0.50x
C      $     229,696$     195,447$     144,267     0.85x     0.63x     0.75x     0.55x
D      $     245,435$     221,198$     152,428     0.90x     0.62x     0.85x     0.59x

Below-median findings under stress:
  Cohort A BELOW median ($260,000): Depression ($182,255), Stagflation ($126,470)
  Cohort B BELOW median ($260,000): Depression ($185,966), Stagflation ($131,138)
  Cohort C BELOW median ($260,000): Depression ($195,447), Stagflation ($144,267)
  Cohort D BELOW median ($260,000): Depression ($221,198), Stagflation ($152,428)

==========================================================================================
SECTION 6  Monte Carlo bootstrap analysis (10,000 paths per configuration)
==========================================================================================

Monte Carlo runtime: 0.6 seconds for 16 configs x 10,000 paths = 160,000 simulated lives

TABLE M1   Block bootstrap, 1929-2025 universe (Section 6.2)
==========================================================================================
Cohort         P5       P25       P50       P75       P95       Mean   P(<med)   P(<mean)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A         $   47K   $  121K   $  235K   $  451K    $1.18M    $  374K     54.2%      85.7%
B         $   64K   $  158K   $  313K   $  611K    $1.62M    $  511K     43.1%      77.8%
C         $   80K   $  199K   $  390K   $  787K    $2.17M    $  670K     34.3%      69.9%
D         $   94K   $  231K   $  454K   $  916K    $2.48M    $  772K     29.0%      64.9%

TABLE M2   Configuration sensitivity (P50 and P5 across all 16 configs)
==========================================================================================
Cohort Configuration                  P50          P5     P(<med)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A      1929-2025, IID             $  234K     $   51K       54.0%
A      1929-2025, BLOCK           $  235K     $   47K       54.2%
A      1960-2025, IID             $  235K     $   58K       54.4%
A      1960-2025, BLOCK           $  223K     $   62K       57.9%
B      1929-2025, IID             $  313K     $   62K       42.7%
B      1929-2025, BLOCK           $  313K     $   64K       43.1%
B      1960-2025, IID             $  293K     $   68K       44.4%
B      1960-2025, BLOCK           $  282K     $   74K       46.3%
C      1929-2025, IID             $  401K     $   78K       34.0%
C      1929-2025, BLOCK           $  390K     $   80K       34.3%
C      1960-2025, IID             $  360K     $   79K       36.8%
C      1960-2025, BLOCK           $  341K     $   87K       37.6%
D      1929-2025, IID             $  453K     $   90K       29.2%
D      1929-2025, BLOCK           $  454K     $   94K       29.0%
D      1960-2025, IID             $  408K     $   87K       31.9%
D      1960-2025, BLOCK           $  384K     $   93K       33.3%

==========================================================================================
HEADLINE SUMMARY  (compare to paper's Abstract claims)
==========================================================================================
Deterministic central-scenario median advantage:
  Cohort A: $     209,942  =  0.81x median
  Cohort B: $     215,961  =  0.83x median
  Cohort C: $     229,696  =  0.88x median
  Cohort D: $     245,435  =  0.94x median

Bootstrap median advantage (P50 / median actual, 1960-2025 block):
  Cohort A: P50=$     223,357  =  0.86x median
  Cohort B: P50=$     281,599  =  1.08x median
  Cohort C: P50=$     341,048  =  1.31x median
  Cohort D: P50=$     383,698  =  1.48x median

Bootstrap median advantage (P50 / median actual, 1929-2025 block):
  Cohort A: P50=$     235,049  =  0.90x median
  Cohort B: P50=$     313,474  =  1.21x median
  Cohort C: P50=$     390,251  =  1.50x median
  Cohort D: P50=$     453,617  =  1.74x median
                                            
Full output saved to all_results.txt
